On November 25, members of the Cornell Law community gathered to celebrate the release of Kevin Clermont’s new book, A General Theory of Evidence and Proof: Forming Beliefs in Truth. The book celebration, held in the MacDonald Moot Court Room, featured comments from Clermont, Robert D. Ziff Professor of Law, and Cornell Law colleagues Michael Dorf, Robert S. Stevens Professor of Law, and George Hay, Charles Frank Reavis Sr. Professor of Law.
As Clermont explained, his book addresses the timehonored debate over how humans analyze the pursuit of truth. The question the book attempts to answer, he noted, is “Should you proceed by belief or by probability?” Tracing probability’s origins to 17th-century mathematicians Pascal and Fermat, Clermont highlighted its evolution from supplanting belief analysis in education to its influence in law. While lawyers have contributed to probability’s development, courts still grapple with finding facts by “inner convictions of truth.” The essential message of his book is that law has crafted a sound model of non-additive, multivalent beliefs tailored to its needs.
“The book has two main claims that are remarkable in their juxtaposition,” said George Hay. “The first is that law scholars who write about evidence have been using probability, where it really doesn’t fit . . . . But the second claim that Kevin makes, which is supposed to help us sleep better at night, is that on the ground, judges and juries actually get it right most of the time. It’s the academics who are confused.”
“Kevin lifted the veil from my eyes and made me realize, no, it is possible to think that what the law is doing actually makes sense and is just, and that the problem is probability’s product rule,” said Michael Dorf.
Clermont emphasized that “the standard of proof can be applied to each element or to the party’s whole case, yet it works out the same. Inferences can be cascaded upon inferences without invoking the product rule.”
Clermont is one of the leading experts on civil procedure in the United States, and this is his second book in two years.
Clermont is one of the leading experts on civil procedure in the United States, and this is his second book in two years. In February 2024, the Law School celebrated the publication of Come on, Children: The Autobiography of George Washington Fields—a book Clermont edited.
Clermont is one of the leading experts on civil procedure in the United States, and this is his second book in two years.
